Stepwise improvement in intracerebral haematoma expansion prediction with advanced imaging: a comprehensive comparison of existing scores

Background We aim to comprehensively assess and compare the predictive performance of haematoma expansion (HE) scores in a homogeneous cohort of acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) patients. Methods Existing scores for predicting HE in acute ICH patients were included and categorised by imaging modality: non-contrast CT (NCCT), single-phase CT angiography (sCTA) and multiphase CTA (mCTA). The predictive performance of the scores was evaluated with the c-statistic in a population of consecutive adult patients with acute ICH admitted to a tertiary care centre in Southern Alberta, Canada, between February 2012 and May 2020, investigated with a multimodal imaging protocol (NCCT, sCTA and mCTA). The primary outcome was HE (ICH volume growth ≥6mL or ≥33%), and the secondary outcome was severe HE (ICH volume growth ≥12.5mL or ≥66%). The DeLong test compared the best-performing scores from each imaging category. Results 16 HE scores were assessed (NCCT=8, sCTA=6 and mCTA=2) in 217 patients with a median age of 70 years (IQR=60–80), and 86 (39.6%) were females. 51 (23.5%) patients experienced HE and 35 (16.1%) had severe HE. The c-statistic for predicting HE ranged from 0.516 to 0.674 for NCCT-based scores, 0.627 to 0.725 for sCTA-based scores and 0.800 to 0.814 for mCTA-based score. The c-statistic for predicting severe HE ranged from 0.505 to 0.666 for NCCT scores, 0.651 to 0.740 for sCTA scores and 0.813 to 0.828 for mCTA scores. A statistically significant difference favouring mCTA over other imaging modalities in predicting both HE and severe HE was observed. Conclusions Advanced imaging demonstrated a stepwise improvement in the predictive performance of HE scores. However, no existing score achieved excellent predictive performance (c-statistics ≥0.90) in our cohort, highlighting the need for further refinement.