Long-term Follow-up and Factors Associated with Active Surveillance Failure for Patients with Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: The Bladder Cancer Italian Active Surveillance (BIAS) Experience

Active surveillance (AS) has been proposed as an alternative to transurethral resection (TUR) in selected patients with recurrent low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). Here we report long-term results for patients on AS and investigate features associated with AS failure. Cases with recurrence after diagnosis of low-grade (LG) pTa/pT1a NMIBC were enrolled in the Bladder Italian Active Surveillance (BIAS) project. Over 251 AS events, we observed 130 failures (51.8%). In these patients, final pathology showed 25 benign lesions (19.2%) and 92 LG Ta (70.7%), 12 high-grade Ta/T1 (9.2%), and one T2 (0.7%) tumor. The treatment-free probability at 12, 18, 24, and 36 mo was 59.7%, 54.5%, 46.3%, and 40.4%, respectively. We identified 95 patients (37.8%) who remained on AS for >18 mo. A multivariable Cox regression model confirmed that patients with a history of multiple TURs (hazard ratio [HR] 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.51) and those with more than one lesion at AS entry (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.05-2.54) were significantly more likely to experience AS failure. Our results confirm that well-selected patients with NMIBC can safely remain on AS for a long period of time. Multiple TURs and multiple lesions at AS enrollment are associated with a higher risk of AS failure. PATIENT SUMMARY: Active surveillance has been proposed as an alternative to surgery for patients with recurrent low-risk superficial bladder cancer. Our report confirms that well-selected patients can safely avoid or postpone surgery.