Effect of Sustained Clinical Remission on the Risk of Lupus Flares and Impaired Kidney Function in Patients With Lupus Nephritis

Introduction: This retrospective study on patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (LN) aimed to assess the probability of sustained clinical remission (sCR) and to investigate sCR effects on disease flares and impaired kidney function (IKF). Methods: sCR was defined as clinical-Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) = 0 and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 lasting ≥1 year; IKF: eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 for >3 months. We analyzed the probability of achieving and maintaining sCR, and the yearly risk of flare. Cox models were used to identify predictors of sCR and IKF with variables analyzed as time-dependent covariates when appropriate. Results: Of 303 patients followed-up with for 14.8 (interquartile range: 9.8-22) years, 257 (84.8%) achieved sCR. The probability of achieving sCR progressively increased over time reaching 90% at 15 years. Baseline age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.017; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.005-1.029; P = 0.004), hydroxychloroquine intake (HR: 1.385; 95% CI: 1.051-1.825; P = 0.021), and absence of arterial hypertension (HR: 0.699; 95% CI: 0.532-0.921; P = 0.011) were independent predictors of sCR. Among patients who achieved sCR, 142 (55.3%) developed a lupus flare after a median time of 3.6 (2.3-5.9) years. In the remaining 115 patients, sCR persisted for 9.5 (5.8-14.5) years. The probability of sCR to persist at 15 years was 38%. SLE flare risk decreased to 10%, 5%, and 2% in patients with sCR lasting <5, 5 to 10, and >10 years, respectively. At the last observation, 57 patients (18.81%) had IKF. sCR achievement (HR: 0.18, P < 0.001) and its duration (HR: 0.83, P < 0.001) were protective against IKF. Conclusion: sCR is an achievable target in LN management and protects against IKF. The longer the sCR, the higher the chance of its persistence and the lower the risk of SLE flares.